Sudan's north-south peace deal faces tough tests in 2009

By Andrew Heavens and Skye Wheeler:

KHARTOUM/JUBA - A series of political squalls on the horizon in Sudan this year threaten to build into a perfect storm with the power to wreck a peace deal between north and south.

While much attention has focused on the conflict in the western Darfur region recently, the deal four years ago this Friday to end over two decades of north-south war looks ever more shaky as promises made at the time come due to be met.

Elections are scheduled by July ahead of a referendum on southern independence by 2011. But core issues, such as the position of the north-south border, have yet to be resolved.

Hanging over everything is whether President Omar Hassan al-Bashir will face an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court over accusations of war crimes in Darfur.

Meanwhile, tumbling world oil prices will cut heavily into official budgets in north and south, stifling the boom years that both have enjoyed.

"It is going to be the most difficult year yet and that's because a number of known problems are coming together," said John Ryle of The Rift Valley Institute, a research body covering east Africa.

Those problems include the findings of a national census, setting an election date, the terms of new media and security legislation and disagreements on boundaries.

For now, confrontations over those sticking points to the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement will take place over the negotiating table. But the risks of a return to armed conflict are real.

CLASHES

Northern and southern armies have clashed on occasion since the peace deal was signed, most recently last year in the central oil region town of Abyei, which both sides claim. That problem could also come to a head again this year.

"Sudan is entering a volatile period in the implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement. The risk of violent outbreaks is acute," said a report by U.S.-based aid group Refugees International this week.

The findings of Sudan's census are due in February.

Southern politicians have suggested they will reject any count that shows fewer than 15 million southerners among a population previously estimated at around 40 million.

Under the terms of the peace deal, any proof the south had less than a third of Sudan's total population would lead to a recalculation of how much of the country's oil revenues flow to the region's capital Juba.

The next contentious issue is the election date. A delay could also push back the referendum on secession by the largely black, Christian and animist south, from the Arab Muslim dominated north.

At best, a late election would reduce the amount of time to prepare for a southern "yes" vote on independence -- widely seen as the most likely outcome.

The south's information minister Gabriel Changson Chang said a lack of planning would "create immense pressure" and could lead to the region splitting away "abruptly".

"This could be a very serious situation ... Definitely it is going to be a challenging year," he said.

Beyond that, the South's dominant Sudan People's Liberation Party (SPLM) has already accused the north of trying to block legislation on media, national security and other issues, all seen as pre-requisites for a free and fair election and referendum.

COURT DECISION

There are also pressures from outside the peace deal.

The most immediate is the decision from the International Criminal Court over whether to issue an arrest warrant against Bashir. A decision by the court's judges is expected within weeks.

If Bashir is indicted, it could certainly to cause a big flare-up in fighting between Khartoum and the Darfur rebels, who also complain of neglect by the central government.

That might mean a shift in the balance of north-south power and forces too. 

Then there is the new U.S. administration under Barack Obama, who has yet to spell out whether he will continue to negotiate with Sudan as the outgoing Republican administration has done or follow the more confrontational lead of President George W. Bush's Democrat predecessor, Bill Clinton.

Another big disruptive factor could be the economy given the tumbling prices for the crude oil which accounted for more than 60 percent of Sudan's exports last year.

Some commentators are still optimistic, saying the fact the deal has even held this long is an achievement. About two million people are thought to have been killed in the north-south conflict compared to estimates of 200,000 dead for the war in Darfur since 2003.

"(The agreement) is an amazing achievement. It has been sustained and there's a lot to build on in it," said the head of the Assessment and Evaluation Commission, the international body tasked with monitoring the north-south deal, Derek Plumbly.

"I think you just have to look at the reverse of the coin, what would happen if this framework, this base were somehow to fall apart... It would be a nightmare."